If Hillary Clinton pushes the Democratic primary to the nominating convention, the remaining delegates will have a variety of factors to consider before casting their votes. One is popular vote.

Here’s where that count stands now, with options to count or not count Florida and Michigan and with an explanation of the often confusing estimates that go into counts on some of the caucus states.


Obama remains ahead, likely with a lead that Clinton can’t close, but the margin is close (add both Florida and Michigan and Clinton leads). The margin, it’s worth noting, is padded by Obama wins in Deep South states that, barring a sea change, aren’t likely to wind up in the Democratic column in November. I think, for purposes of assessing overall performance, you have to count Florida, but you should throw out Michigan. But this alone shouldn’t determine a delegate’s vote.

Among the analysis: Washington Post says Obama likely to go more negative still. And, it still looks like a mighty long shot for Hillary.


UPDATE: Here’s a useful roundup of headlines, analysis and news that North Carolina Republicans have unveiled an effort to go after Obama on Rev. Wright.