This poll came out during the visit of President Obama to Arkansas and got lost in the shuffle, though I think the U.S. Senate number got some attention. The Give Arkansas a Raise Now coalition hired Opinion Research Associates to conduct telephone interview polling on its minimum wage increase proposal and also included some key political races. The results favored U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mike Ross and an increase in the minimum wage.
The poll, conducted April 1-8 (NOT in February as this item said erroneoulsy originally) through telephone interviews (not robocalls), sampled 400 likely voters (based on voting history), with 100 randomly selected from each of the four congressional districts.
U.S. SENATE: Mark Pryor 49, Tom Cotton 38
GOVERNOR: Mike Ross 46, Asa Hutchinson 38
MINIMUM WAGE: By a margin of 77-19 respondents favored a minimum wage increase as described by the survey. The group wants to phase in an increase from $6.25 to $8.50 an hour over two years.
The trend has been running in Pryor’s direction on local and national polling, but Hutchinson has tended to enjoy leads in polling, particularly more recent numbers that have come with Hutchinson in the middle of heavy ad buying for his Republican primary race. The minimum wage, too, has tended to enjoy support locally and nationally. I’m reasonably confident, nonetheless, that Republicans can be expected to dismiss these poll findings in every case.
PS — I noted in the original post that things can change fast in political races. But the crosstabs show 199, or just about exactly 50 percent, categorized themselves as “conservative” voters, with only 45, or about 11 percent, calling themselves liberal. About 11 percent were black voters. Self-identified Democrats led self-identified Republicans 41-29, but, judging by the political leanings, the 27 percent self-identified “independents” likely leaned strongly conservative. That’s been a consistent finding in other polling.
RE CORRECTION: I took the original date from a cover page of the report that mentioned February 2014, but that was an uncorrected date from a template cover sheet, pollster Ernie Oakleaf told me. The full report gave the accurate dates for the polling, April 1-8.