David Couch, attorney for Let Arkansas Decide, the retailer-backed group seeking a statewide vote on a uniform state law to allow retail sale of alcohol in all 75 Arkansas counties, did an automated poll of the question Tuesday as well as the U.S. Senate race.
The poll sampled 850 voters. It was done by Chism Strategies of Jackson, Miss., which identifies itself as work for Democratic and progressive causes. The summary (I’ll have one other question from the poll — about medical marijuana — tomorrow).
Couch said he added a Senate question to compare it against other polling as a means of assessing accuracy of the question on alcohol. He said he thought the Senate results seemed in line with other results.
The key results:
The proposed alcohol amendment, still being canvassed for signatures:
Strongly support 32%
Somewhat support 17%
Neutral 16%
Somewhat oppose 9%
Strongly oppose 23%
Unsure 4%
The U.S. Senate race
Mark Pryor 48%
Tom Cotton 390 46%
Nathan LaFrance 21 2%
Mark Swaney 31 4%
Functionally, that’s very similar to the Talk Business/Hendrix College poll showing a 2 point lead for Cotton, 44-42. This poll arguably overpolled black voters — 13 percent against 11 percent black participation in the last non-presidential election. The Talk Business poll had an 8 percent black sample.
The race is dead even, but I think it’s fair for Democrats to fear that the small sliver of undecided and third party voters who swing the outcome could split Republican, given prevailing state sentiments.
As always grab you salt on any and all polling results. The New York Times’ Upshot talks of the perils of even poll weighting efforts, given the prevalence of partisan poll results.
Following is the full summary:
Will you be voting in the General election this November?
Voting # %
1 Yes 850 100%
Grand Total 850 100%
In politics, how do you describe yourself?
Party # %
1 Democrat 308 36%
2 Republican 277 33%
3 Independent 248 29%
4 Other 17 2%
Grand Total 850 100%
Ideologically, how do you describe yourself?
Ideology # %
1 Very conservative 263 31%
2 Somewhat conservative 251 30%
3 Moderate 189 22%
4 Somewhat liberal 90 11%
5 Very liberal 33 4%
6 Other 24 3%
Grand Total 850 100%
Does the area where you live allow the sale of alcoholic beverages?
Area # %
1 Yes 514 60%
2 No 293 34%
3 Unsure 43 5%
Grand Total 850 100%
Do you support the Amendment?
Support Proposal # %
1 Strongly support 272 32%
2 Somewhat support 143 17%
3 Neutral 136 16%
4 Somewhat oppose 75 9%
5 Strongly oppose 192 23%
6 Unsure 32 4%
Grand Total 850 100%
Who do you support in the race for US Senate?
US Senate # %
1 Mark Pryor 408 48%
2 Tom Cotton 390 46%
3 Nathan LaFrance 21 2%
4 Mark Swaney 31 4%
Grand Total 850 100%
Gender
Gender # %
1 Male 319 38%
2 Female 531 62%
Grand Total 850 100%
Ethnicity
Ethnicity # %
1 African American 108 13%
2 Caucasian or White 731 86%
3 Asian 6 1%
4 Hispanic 5 1%
Grand Total 850 100%
Age
Age # %
1 18 to 34 24 3%
2 35 to 44 33 4%
3 45 to 54 104 12%
4 55 to 64 213 25%
5 65 or older 476 56%
Grand Total 850 100%