Most political observers I talk to in Arkansas believe that Asa Hutchinson has a small lead over Mike Ross in the race for governor and that the race for Senate between Mark Pryor and Tom Cotton is very, very close. Amid all the polls and noise and spin, I thought it would be useful to take a look at what the various polling aggregation and forecasting models suggest in the Cotton-Pryor race (the national forecasting models are much more focused on U.S. Senate races than individual races for governor). All of them give Cotton the advantage, in some cases a substantial one. The race is by no means over and is indeed close — even the most pessimistic models still give Pryor a one in five chance of prevailing. But if these forecasts are to be believed, Cotton is a clear favorite at this point.
Via Vox, here are the forecasts from 538, the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Princeton Election Cosortium, Huffington Post, and Daily Kos:
The Pryor campaign has not always been happy with these models, apparently.
p.s. The New York Times Upshot blog now has state-specific pages for election forecasts, including for Arkansas.