Many races locally and nationally are of interest today, of course, but two Arkansas election contests are particularly interesting to me because I just don’t have a clue how they’ll turn out:
* STATE SUPREME COURT: Will a deluge of dirty outside money with wildly misleading radio and TV advertising
* LITTLE ROCK MAYOR: The five-way race boils down to Baker Kurrus, Warwick Sabin and Frank Scott Jr. Kurrus enjoys significant Republican and business establishment support, but couldn’t be called a reflexive member of either contingent; Sabin also developed some crossover support early in his campaign but has been reliably liberal on issues; Scott will command the African-American vote and has a great story as a native son made good and now a solid establishment highway commission, banking) player who hasn’t forgotten his roots.
The thinking has been that a runoff is inevitable, the only question being which two make it. However, I think there is a path to victory (a 40 percent vote) but it’s narrow and depends on a tiny vote for the marginal candidates, Vincent Tolliver and Glen Schwarz, and a lighter than expected vote for one of the three major candidates.
Your predictions in both races welcome.