Arkansas, U.S. infection rate compared.

The Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health of the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ bi-monthly report providing short-, mid- and long-term forecasts for the COVID-19 picture in Arkansas notes a flattening trend of cases and a forecast that keeping kids home with online education could “significantly” lower the rate of infection.

Among the other points in the Aug. 14 forecast developed using data through Aug. 9:

*The short-term model puts the cumulative total of COVID-19 cases in Arkansas at 58,000 by Aug. 24, six days from now. However, the total reported by the governor today is much less, 53,487, so case numbers would have to be in the mid-700s range to hit 58,000. The forecast was created based on data from a period when cases were running in the 700s on a daily basis.

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*The short-term model puts the cumulative number of hospitalizations at 4,159 and deaths at 713 by Aug. 24. To date, the hospitalization total is 3,637, with deaths at 619. While the reported deaths have been in the double digits for a while, the Arkansas Department of Health attributes that to late reporting; it seems unlikely 94 people will die between now and Aug. 24. The short-term model also predicts, if nothing else changes, 1,116 deaths by Sept. 30. The short-term projection also shows 1,447 patients needed intensive care.

*The mid-term simulation suggests that if masks are worn the rate of new cases will decline dramatically. One model suggests that if Arkansans did not change their mask-wearing behavior after the mask order (based on assumptions of compliance), there would be 8,000 daily new infections by Oct. 6. With greater compliance, but under the assumption that not everyone will wear the mask properly (including school children and college students), new daily infections would be lower, at 6,200. It is the mid-term model that addresses school infections and says infections will rise with in-school and blended instruction. A third scenario says that if everyone is properly wearing a face mask, rates would decline to 4,000 a day by Oct. 6.

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*Mid-term simulations estimate daily infections if schools were to open to in-person, or a combination of in-person and online classes, or online only. The first two scenarios — which assume schools take safety precautions, not all wear their masks properly and summer socializing — would produce 8,000 daily infections (all in-person schooling), 5,500 (a combination of in-person and online, which is what is happening now) and 3,000 by Oct. 6 if schools opened online only. The report’s conclusion:

The mid-term simulations suggest COVID-19 cases will continue to rapidly increase through the end of September to early October. This will be accompanied by increasing deaths, at approximately one percent of those testing positive. The simulations show different outcomes based on differing mask wearing and school opening scenarios. These indicate ways the high number of projected cases might be decreased. For example, if the public adheres to the facemask order, the number of new infections could essentially be cut in half. In turn, the number of new hospitalizations would also be reduced. If schools open with on-line classes only, the number of new cases could be decreased even further.

*The long-term projection predicts a cumulative total of 100,000 cases by Sept. 30 and moves the pandemic’s peak in Arkansas to mid-December.

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As the College of Health reminds people, forecasts are like weather reports, based on past trends.

The College of Health report says Arkansans between 35 and 60 have the highest number of infections. The health department’s figures, which groups ages 24-44, also shows this to be the age group with the highest infections, 36 percent. Second are ages 45-64, 27 percent. The age group 18-24 is third-highest, with 14 percent;  0-17 infections are 13 percent and for people 65 and over, it’s 11 percent. The report said Poinsett, Logan and Fulton counties had the greatest growth in cases.

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The report indicated that Arkansas’s positivity rate — the percentage of positives among tests — was higher than the United States as of Aug. 6, at 14 percent, compared to around 7 percent nationwide.

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