Official state estimates of how many people will come to Arkansas for the April 8 solar eclipse vary wildly.
The Arkansas House of Representatives expects “approximately two million people,” a number echoed by the Department of Transportation (along with 700,000 additional vehicles). The Department of Parks, Heritage and Tourism puts the number closer to 1.5 million, while Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders hedged a bit at her press conference yesterday and said the total number of expected visitors was “300,000 to 1.5 million.” 40/29 News reported that the “state’s population of 3 million people is expected to double on April 8.”
According to at least one expert, though, all of those numbers are likely way too high.
Michael Zeiler, who writes about and models geographic information systems (GIS) data and operates GreatAmericanEclipse.com and eclipse-maps.com, recently published estimates for how many visitors states can expect to see on April 8. He predicts between 70,000 and 281,000 eclipse visitors in Arkansas.
Zeiler’s estimate puts Arkansas fifth in terms of expected visitors among the states in the eclipse’s path of totality. Texas is first, with Zeiler predicting 270,000 to 1,080,000 people traveling to the Lone Star State. Indiana, Ohio and New York also rank in his top five.
Asked by email about Arkansas’s estimates, Zeiler was diplomatic. “I honestly think those estimated numbers of 1.5, 2, and 3 million visitors are too high for Arkansas, but I would be delighted to be wrong,” he said.
The biggest factor for the number of visitors to a particular state, he said, is whether there are big cities nearby. “Memphis and Tulsa will send a considerable number of visitors to Arkansas on eclipse day, but not on that scale.”
Zeiler has experience with these sorts of predictions. He produced state-by-state tourism estimates ahead of the August 2017 solar eclipse, which cut a path across the U.S. from Oregon to South Carolina. Among the states that released tourism totals following the 2017 event, South Carolina, Idaho, and Illinois were within Zeiler’s predicted range. The actual number of visitors to Kentucky, Wyoming and Nebraska were higher than Zeiler’s estimates — in the case of Nebraska, 50% higher. But Arkansas’s estimate of 1.5 million travelers in 2024 is five times higher than the upper end of Zeiler’s best guess.
Arkansas tourism officials point to Wyoming’s experience in 2017 as evidence that Arkansas’ eclipse tourism could outpace predictions. Asked by email why the state’s estimate was so much higher than Zeiler’s, tourism department spokesperson Shealyn Sowers gave this response:
Drawing insights from the after-action reports of states that experienced the Great American Eclipse in 2017, particularly Wyoming, which saw 473,000 visitors, provides a valuable benchmark.
In contrast to Wyoming’s experience, Arkansas boasts a longer and wider path of totality for the April 2024 eclipse, with darkness lasting nearly double the duration. Additionally, our state’s central location, nestled near major population centers and featuring expansive rural areas, positions us as an attractive destination for eclipse enthusiasts.
Unfortunately, much of that information appears to be incorrect. According to the Wyoming Tribune Eagle, Wyoming had 261,000 eclipse tourists in 2017, not 473,000, with roughly 75% of those coming from outside the state.
It’s true that the path of totality will be wider in 2024 Arkansas (about 120 miles wide) than it was in 2017 Wyoming (about 65 miles). But Sowers is wrong about the length: The 2017 eclipse was over Wyoming for 12 minutes and 39 seconds, covering a path of 365 miles. The 2024 eclipse will be over Arkansas for approximately 15 minutes, covering about 275 miles.
Sowers is right that the eclipse will last longer in Arkansas than it did in Wyoming, though “nearly double” is a bit of a stretch. Wyoming saw about two and a half minutes of totality, while Arkansas will see about four minutes and 18 seconds, a difference of 72%.
Comparative distance of eclipse paths through Arkansas (2024) and Wyoming (2017)
Most importantly, though, Arkansas isn’t competing for eclipse tourism with 2017 Wyoming; it is competing with other states in the 2024 path of totality. And the statement about Arkansas being “nestled near major population centers” doesn’t make much sense in this context.
Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin and San Antonio are already in the path of totality. Houston, St. Louis, Kansas City, Nashville and Oklahoma City are closer to totality viewing locations in their own states or adjoining states than they are to spots in Arkansas. The drive from New Orleans to Dallas isn’t appreciably longer than the drive from New Orleans to Little Rock, and the highways to and through Texas are easier to travel than any route from the Crescent City to Arkansas.
At least one Arkansas economist is relying on a revised version of Zeiler’s estimates, rather than the state’s projections. Dr. Michael Pakko, state economic forecaster at the Arkansas Economic Development Institute, reviewed Zeiler’s 2017 predictions and the actual tourism numbers for some states in the path of that year’s eclipse as part of an economic impact prediction he wrote last month.
Referring to what he called an “optimistic range of projections,” Pakko wrote, “we present scenarios in which the total number of eclipse travelers ranges from 210,000 to 460,000.” Pakko’s lower bound was based on the midpoint of Zeiler’s range, and his upper bound was made by adjusting Zeiler’s high estimate upward by 36%, the same amount by which Wyoming exceeded predictions in 2017.
“Assuming that 75% of those total travelers are visiting from out of state (the Wyoming average),” Pakko wrote, the total number of out-of-state visitors to Arkansas will range from 160,000 to 350,000.
The weather forecast will also affect the numbers. “Even with the best estimates, weather will have a major impact on the number of visitors to Arkansas for the 2024 Great North American Solar Eclipse,” Sowers said.
Zeiler agreed. “The best scenario for high visitation to Arkansas,” he said, “is a fine weather forecast several days before, especially if Texas looks cloudy.” Unfortunately for Arkansas tourism, the general consensus among eclipse watchers is that Texas is likely to have the best weather next month.
Eclipsophile, a website that describes itself as “Climate and Weather for Celestial Events,” predicts the best weather prospects on April 8 will be in the Edwards Plateau, an area of Texas loosely bounded by San Angelo, Austin, San Antonio and Del Rio. The elevation of the plateau, the site notes, limits the thunderstorms that commonly affect the eastern half of Texas in April.
For Arkansas, the site predicts cloud cover along the centerline of totality from 54% to 59%. “When we look off of the centerline,” the site explains, “the situation is not so simple.”
The low-lying floodplain of the Mississippi River is a “reservoir” of atmospheric moisture that hides under heavy stratocumulus layers or blossoms with convective clouds on unstable April days while the hills to the west remain in sunshine. It’s not an everyday event, but happens often enough, especially just after larger systems have passed by to the east, that the cloud statistics are strongly affected. Jonesboro and Kennett, which lie on the floodplain, have 10 to 15 percent higher April cloud amounts than stations on the north side of the track. From Little Rock northeastward, it’s probably best to stay north of the centerline and head for the high ground on the Ozark Plateau unless the weather forecast promises a sunny day right across the track.
Locally, the recent weather data for Little Rock on April 8 doesn’t inspire confidence. In 2023, Little Rock was partly cloudy between 1:30 p.m. and 2:00 p.m. In 2022, it was cloudy and windy. 2021 was clear and 70 degrees. In 2020, it was cloudy and foggy in the morning, but cleared just after noon. 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016 and 2015 were all cloudy during the relevant timeframe. And in 2014, the worst-case scenario happened: A thunderstorm arrived in the morning and hung around through mid-afternoon.
The excitement around the April 8 syzygy — the straight-line arrangement of the sun, moon and Earth that causes an eclipse — is understandable. It is entirely possible that Arkansas could see 300,000 or more visitors. It would be nice, however, if state leaders would set more realistic expectations. Doing so might even save the state some money, since 300,000 tourists should not require nearly as many state police resources to manage as 1.5 million.
But don’t be surprised if partial cloud cover predictably rolls into various Arkansas cities and towns on April 8 and state officials blame “unforeseeable bad weather” for why their estimate was off by more than a million people.
